Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming     

R. S. W. van de Wal  J. Oerlemans 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(10):733-744

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997  相似文献   

A record of accelerated erosion in the recent sediments of Blelham Tarn in the English Lake district   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. D. van der Post  F. Oldfield  E. Y. Haworth  P. R. J. Crooks  P. G. Appleby 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1997,18(2):103-120

Two frozen cores from Blelham Tarn were subsampled and measured using mineral magnetic, loss-on-ignition (LOI), radiometric, granulometric and diatom analyses. A detailed chronology was established using varves, radioisotopes and diatoms. This has enabled an accurately dated reconstruction of sedimentation over the past forty years. Despite a large increase in lake productivity, evidence suggests that the observed exponential increase in sedimentation rates can be attributed to erosion within the catchment. The predominant sediment source has been identified as surface soil. A comparison between the trend of accelerated sedimentation and the record of increased sheep stocking density for the area within which the most of the catchment lies, as well as observations of contemporary surface processes within the catchment, both suggest that much of the recent erosion is a direct response to increased pressure from sheep grazing.  相似文献   

Continental break-up and collision in the Neoproterozoic and Palaeozoic — A tale of Baltica and Laurentia     

T.H. Torsvik  M.A. Smethurst  J.G. Meert  R. Van der Voo  W.S. McKerrow  M.D. Brasier  B.A. Sturt  H.J. Walderhaug 《Earth》1996,40(3-4):229-258

  相似文献   

Dehydration melting of tonalites. Part I. Beginning of melting     

J. Singh  Wilhelm Johannes 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1996,125(1):16-25

 The beginning of dehydration melting in the tonalite system (biotite-plagioclase-quartz) is investigated in the pressure range of 2–12 kbar. A special method consisting of surrounding a crystal of natural plagioclase (An₄₅) with a biotite-quartz mixture, and observing reactions at the plagioclase margin was employed for precise determination of the solidus for dehydration melting. The beginning of dehydration melting was worked out at 5 kbar for a range of compositions of biotite varying from iron-free phlogopite to iron-rich Ann₇₀, with and without titanium, fluorine and extra aluminium in the biotite. The dehydration melting of phlogopite + plagioclase (An₄₅) + quartz begins between 750 and 770°C at pressures of 2 and 5 kbar, at approximately 740°C at 8 kbar and between 700 and 730°C at 10 kbar. At 12 kbar, the first melts are observed at temperatures as low as 700°C. The data indicate an almost vertical dehydration melting solidus curve at low pressures which bends backward to lower temperatures at higher pressures (> 5 kbar). The new phases observed at pressures ≤ 10 kbar are melt + enstatite + clinopyroxene + potassium feldspar ± amphibole. In addition to these, zoisite was also observed at 12 kbar. With increasing temperature, phlogopite becomes enriched in aluminium and deficient in potassium. Substitution of octahedral magnesium by aluminium and titanium in the phlogopite, as well as substitution of hydroxyl by fluorine, have little effect on the beginning of dehydration melting temperatures in this system. The dehydration melting of biotite (Ann₅₀) + plagioclase (An₄₅) + quartz begins 50°C below that of phlogopite bearing starting composition. Solid reaction products are orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + potassium feldspar ± amphibole. Epidote was also observed above 8 kbar, and garnet at 12 kbar (750°C). The experiments on the iron-bearing system performed at ≤ 5 kbar were buffered with NiNiO. The f _{O 2} in high pressure runs lies close to CoCoO. With the substitution of octahedral magnesium and iron by aluminium and titanium, and replacement of hydroxyl by fluorine in biotite, the beginning of dehydration melting temperatures in this system increase up to 780°C at 5 kbar, which is 70°C above the beginning of dehydration melting of the assemblage containing biotite (Ann₅₀) of ideal composition. The dehydration melting at 5 kbar in the more iron-rich Ann₇₀-bearing starting composition begins at 730°C, and in the Ann₂₅-bearing assemblage at 710°C. This indicates that quartz-biotite-plagioclase assemblages with intermediate compositions of biotite (Ann₂₅ and Ann₅₀) melt at lower temperatures as compared to those containing Fe-richer or Mg-richer biotites. This study shows that the dehydration melting of tonalites may begin at considerably lower temperatures than previously thought, especially at high pressures (>5 kbar). Received: 27 December 1995 / Accepted: 7 May 1996  相似文献   

Dehydration melting of tonalites. Part II. Composition of melts and solids   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

J. Singh  Wilhelm Johannes 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1996,125(1):26-44

 Dehydration melting of tonalitic compositions (phlogopite or biotite-plagioclase-quartz assemblages) is investigated within a temperature range of 700–1000°C and pressure range of 2–15 kbar. The solid reaction products in the case of the phlogopite-plagioclase(An₄₅)-quartz starting material are enstatite, clinopyroxene and potassium feldspar, with amphiboles occurring occasionally. At 12 kbar, zoisite is observed below 800°C, and garnet at 900°C. The reaction products of dehydration melting of the biotite (Ann₅₀)-plagioclase (An₄₅)-quartz assemblage are melt, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, amphibole and potassium feldspar. At pressures > 8 kbar and temperatures below 800°C, epidote is also formed. Almandine-rich garnet appears above 10 kbar at temperatures ≥ 750°C. The composition of melts is granitic to granodioritic, hence showing the importance of dehydration melting of tonalites for the formation of granitic melts and granulitic restites at pressure-temperature conditions within the continental crust. The melt compositions plot close to the cotectic line dividing the liquidus surfaces between quartz and potassium feldspar in the haplogranite system at 5 kbar and a _{H 2O} = 1. The composition of the melts changes with the composition of the starting material, temperature and pressure. With increasing temperature, the melt becomes enriched in Al₂O₃ and FeO+MgO. Potash in the melt is highest just when biotite disappears. The amount of CaO decreases up to 900°C at 5 kbar whereas at higher temperatures it increases as amphibole, clinopyroxene and more An-component dissolve in the melt. The Na₂O content of the melt increases slightly with increase in temperature. The composition of the melt at temperatures > 900°C approaches that of the starting assemblage. The melt fraction varies with composition and proportion of hydrous phases in the starting composition as well as temperature and pressure. With increasing modal biotite from 20 to 30 wt%, the melt proportion increases from 19.8 to 22.3 vol.% (850°C and 5 kbar). With increasing temperature from 800 to 950°C (at 5 kbar), the increase in melt fraction is from 11 to 25.8 vol.%. The effect of pressure on the melt fraction is observed to be relatively small and the melt proportion in the same assemblage decreases at 850°C from 19.8 vol.% at 5 kbar to 15.3 vol.% at 15 kbar. Selected experiments were reversed at 2 and 5 kbar to demonstrate that near equilibrium compositions were obtained in runs of longer duration. Received: 27 December 1995 / Accepted: 7 May 1996  相似文献   

Flexible spectral methods for the generation of random fields with power-law semivariograms     

Johannes Bruining  Diederik van Batenburg  Larry W. Lake  An Ping Yang 《Mathematical Geology》1997,29(6):823-848

Random field generators serve as a tool to model heterogeneous media for applications in hydrocarbon recovery and groundwater flow. Random fields with a power-law variogram structure, also termed fractional Brownian motion (fBm) fields, are of interest to study scale dependent heterogeneity effects on one-phase and two-phase flow. We show that such fields generated by the spectral method and the Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT) have an incorrect variogram structure and variance. To illustrate this we derive the prefactor of the fBm spectral density function, which is required to generate the fBm fields. We propose a new method to generate fBm fields that introduces weighting functions into the spectral method. It leads to a flexible and efficient algorithm. The flexibility permits an optimal choice of summation points (that is points in frequency space at which the weighting function is calculated) specific for the autocovariance structure of the field. As an illustration of the method, comparisons between estimated and expected statistics of fields with an exponential variogram and of fBm fields are presented. For power-law semivariograms, the proposed spectral method with a cylindrical distribution of the summation points gives optimal results.  相似文献   

Brunet, Roger; Eckert, Denis; Kolossov, Vladimir: Atlas de la Russie et des pays proches.     

Herman van der Wusten 《GeoJournal》1997,42(4):467-467

  相似文献   

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcel van der Perk  Marc F. P. Bierkens 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):307-322

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   

Influence of the Load Wavelength on the Permeability of a Viscosity Interface in the Mantle     

Čížková  Hana  Čadek  Ondřej  van den berg  Arie P. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1997,41(1):64-72

Assuming a radially stratified Newtonian mantle in a steady-state approximation, we demonstrate that the permeability of a viscosity interface at 660-km depth strongly depends on the wavelength of buoyancy forces driving the flow. The flow induced by long-wavelength loads penetrates through the boundary freely even if the viscosity increases by two orders. In contrast, the boundary is practically impermeable for short-wavelength loads located in the upper mantle. Thus, a stepwise increase of viscosity is a significant obstacle for small descending features in the upper mantle, but huge upper mantle downwellings, or upwellings formed in the-lower mantle can overcome it easily. This indicates that certain care is necessary in interpreting the seismic structure of the mantle by means of flow models. The global tomographic image includes only the first few degrees of the harmonic series and, consequently, its interpretation in terms of a present-day flow field results in a predominantly whole-mantle circulation even for extreme viscosity contrasts.  相似文献   

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy     

A. Douaik  M. van Meirvenne  T. Tóth  M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.  相似文献